2023 Wagner Group plane crash

On 23 August 2023, an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet with ten people on board crashed near Kuzhenkino in Tver Oblast, approximately 100 km north of its departure point in Moscow. Among the victims were Yevgeny Prigozhin, Dmitry Utkin and Valery Chekalov, the key figures of the Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company. The crash prompted speculation that the jet was destroyed on the orders of Russian president Vladimir Putin, after Prigozhin had led the Wagner Group rebellion exactly two months prior.

Tracking data from Flightradar24 showed unusual altitude variations followed by a "dramatic descent" shortly before the plane crashed. Visual evidence suggested structural failure of the aircraft. Western intelligence reported that an explosion likely caused the airplane to crash.

The aircraft, manufactured by Brazilian company Embraer, had been associated with Prigozhin since 2018. It was barred from the United States due to sanctions imposed on Prigozhin after his involvement in the Russian interference in the 2018 United States elections.

While official Russian sources downplayed the crash, some intelligence agencies and international leaders suggested it was a politically motivated assassination. Prigozhin's previous criticism of the Russian Defense Ministry and open rebellion against the Russian government were cited as potential motivations for foul play. The deaths of Prigozhin, Utkin, and Chekalov are among several suspicious Russia-related deaths since 2022.

Background

The Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, had played an important role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prigozhin was a close confidant of Russia's president Vladimir Putin. He began openly criticizing the Russian Defense Ministry for mishandling the war effort, eventually saying their reasons for the invasion were lies. On 23 June 2023, he led the Wagner Group in a one-day rebellion against the Russian Defense Ministry, which was resolved through negotiations that allowed Prigozhin to evade punishment. Some believed that this immunity would not last long, with analysts subsequently regarding him as a "dead man walking". On the day of the crash, Prigozhin was reported to have just returned from a trip to Africa. A posthumously released video of Prigozhin believed to have been filmed days before his death showed him acknowledging threats to his life.

Incident

According to data from Flightradar24, the flight was airborne by 15:00 UTC. By approximately 15:11, it had reached an altitude of 28000 ft. The aircraft maintained this altitude until 15:19, when it climbed to 30100 ft. Subsequently, it descended to around 27500 ft before ascending again to 29300 ft. At 15:20:14, when data transmission ceased, the aircraft had descended to 19725 ft.

The airplane crashed near Kuzhenkino in Tver Oblast, about 100 km north of its departure point at Sheremetyevo International Airport in Moscow. Video footage of the incident revealed a vapor trail, a puff of white smoke, and then tilts down to the aircraft in free fall before impact. The airplane appeared to be missing part of its tail and one of its wings. Experts said that the large debris field, with the fuselage being found 3 km from the empennage and a third significant debris site, indicated that the aircraft sustained a catastrophic structural failure that could not be explained by a simple mechanical problem. The left wing was found 3 km from where the main portion of the aircraft fell.

Initial evidence pointed to either a bomb detonating in the aircraft or a surface-to-air missile (SAM) explosion. A Telegram channel linked to the Wagner Group, named Grey Zone, reported that Russian air defenses brought down the jet. The channel claimed that residents near the crash site heard two distinct loud noises before the incident and observed two vapor trails. A source from the Russian government told The Moscow Times that the possibility of a shootdown was being considered due to the crash site's proximity to Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai. This area hosted multiple divisions of S-300 missile systems, and the nearby Khotilovo and Migalovo airbases were equipped with Pantsir systems. Meduza discounted the possibility of a SAM strike, saying that the reported twin exhaust trails and explosions would suggest that two missiles were fired, a common air-defense tactic intended to guarantee a hit, but Flightradar24 data indicates that the aircraft was flying too high to be hit by a short-range man-portable air-defense system, while a hit from a more potent medium-range SAM – and particularly two of them – would cause much more severe and readily identifiable damage. According to US intelligence, an intentional explosion caused the airplane to crash, and reports of the use of SAMs were inaccurate.