2023 Chinese balloon incident

From January 28 to February 4, 2023, a high-altitude balloon originating from China illegally flew across North American airspace, including Alaska, western Canada, and the contiguous United States. On February 4, the U.S. Air Force shot down the balloon over U.S. territorial waters off the coast of South Carolina near the city of Myrtle Beach. Debris from the wreckage was recovered and sent to the FBI Laboratory in Quantico, Virginia, for analysis. U.S. officials stated that the balloon carried intelligence-gathering equipment but does not appear to have sent information back to China. They believed that while the balloon carried a motor, it could not overcome high altitude winds and the Chinese leadership was not aware of the balloon going off course; U.S. president Joe Biden described the balloon as carrying two railroad cars' equivalent of spy equipment.

When the object was first spotted, the Pentagon characterized it as a surveillance balloon. The Chinese government maintained it was a civilian (mainly meteorological) airship that had been blown off course. According to U.S. officials, the balloon carried antennas and other equipment capable of geolocating communications signals, and similar balloons from China have flown over more than 40 nations. Analysts said that its flight path and structural characteristics were unlike those of a typical weather balloon. American officials later disclosed that they had been tracking the balloon since it was launched from Hainan and its original destinations were likely Guam and Hawaii, but prevailing winds blew it off course and across North America.

The incident increased U.S.–China tensions. The United States called the balloon's presence a violation of its sovereignty, and its secretary of state Antony Blinken postponed a long-awaited diplomatic visit to Beijing. Canada summoned the Chinese ambassador in response to the incident.

Forensics of the wreckage have confirmed that the balloon's sensors had never been activated while it was flying over the continental US, and so it did not transmit any intelligence back to China. In December 2023, NBC news reported that according to US intelligence officials, the balloon had made use of a commercially available American internet service provider to communicate, and that it was "primarily for navigation".

Three other high-altitude objects, over Northern Alaska (February 10), Yukon (February 11), and Lake Huron (February 11–12) respectively, were detected and subsequently shot down; a later assessment said they had no relation to China.

Flight path

According to U.S. intelligence and retrospective analysis of satellite images, the balloon was tracked near Hainan island of China as early as January 15. It was able to change its altitude before entering the Pacific Ocean, where officials believe it was blown off-course. Retired NASA engineer Rodger Farley told the New York Times that winter winds may vary too little in direction to allow for course corrections.

The balloon entered U.S. airspace above the Aleutian Islands on January 28, 2023, then moved across Alaska, and entered Canadian airspace over the Yukon and Northwest Territories on January 30, 2023. After flying southeast over British Columbia, the balloon re-entered the U.S. in northern Idaho on January 31 and Montana on February 1, where it was spotted over Billings. Montana is the location of multiple intercontinental ballistic missile installations, such as Malmstrom Air Force Base, causing suspicion that the balloon had been launched to surveil said nuclear installations. The U.S. ground-based intercontinental nuclear arsenal is composed of about 400 LGM-30 Minuteman III missiles deployed around Malmstrom AFB in Montana, Minot AFB in North Dakota, and Francis E. Warren AFB in Wyoming. Meteorologist Dan Satterfield calculated a possible trajectory along this path using the HYSPLIT atmospheric model, consistent with data on prevailing westerlies from China to Montana. The balloon was spotted above northwest Missouri, near Kansas City, on February 3, and subsequently passed near Whiteman Air Force Base, which houses nuclear-capable Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirits.

According to some U.S. officials, China attempted to speed up the balloon, after its presence became known to the public, in order for it to exit U.S. airspace more quickly. Other officials reported that the balloon loitered near sensitive military sites and made multiple passes under control. Experts interviewed by Time said that the balloon traveled much farther than a typical weather balloon would and Chinese officials should not be surprised that it would eventually reach the contiguous United States or be detected. The balloon flew at an altitude of 60000 ft. In comparison, business jets can reach 51000 ft, commercial airliners can reach 45000 ft, and the SR-71 (a now-retired American surveillance plane) has reached 90000 ft.