WPR24FA202 · Air Tractor Inc AT-802A

A flight of three fire-fighting airplanes was being repositioned on a visual flight rules flight from Texas to Oregon. The flight crews planned a refueling stop at an airport in New Mexico. Before reaching the airport, they saw “a light rain shower” ahead of them near the Capitan Mountains in New Mexico. The pilots of the first two airplanes maneuvered to avoid the weather, and the lead pilot directed the other two airplanes to turn 30° and climb to reacquire visual contact with one another. However, one of the pilots observed the accident airplane maneuvering about 2,000 ft below the other airplanes, and the accident pilot subsequently reported that he had a visual flight rules (VFR) corridor through the weather. The pilot likely elected to continue through the VFR corridor rather than climb with the other airplanes. Because the airplanes had been cruising at about 9,500 ft mean sea level (msl), the accident airplane was operating at about 7,500 ft msl in mountainous terrain where elevations in the Capitan Mountain Range exceeded 10,000 ft msl. After the first two airplanes landed at the planned refueling destination, the pilots realized that the accident airplane had not arrived and was missing. After the FAA issued an Alert Notice for the missing airplane, the wreckage was located about 9 miles east-northeast of the Capitan Mountains by another airplane. All required flight control surfaces of the airplane were found at the accident site. The ground scars, tree impact signatures, and wreckage impact fragment distribution indicated that the airplane impacted rising terrain in a near-level flight attitude at high forward velocity, consistent with controlled flight into terrain. Although the airplane was highly fragmented, postaccident examination of the airplane revealed no evidence of preimpact malfunctions or failures that would have precluded normal operation. The impact signatures on the propeller blades were consistent with high RPM and engine power at the time of impact. Weather information for the area indicated widespread mountain obscuration, low ceilings, and light rain near the accident site. The National Weather Service (NWS) had several AlRMETs that were current at the time of the accident for mountain obscuration in the area, and weather observations near the accident site reported instrument flight rules (IFR) and low IFR (LIFR) conditions. Satellite imagery, weather radar data, and model sounding data indicated extensive overcast clouds and saturated atmospheric conditions over the mountainous terrain surrounding the accident site. Although IFR and mountain obscuration conditions existed in the surrounding area, the available evidence suggests that the pilot was likely attempting to maintain visual meteorological conditions while maneuvering through an apparent VFR corridor. As the airplane approached the mountainous terrain, the apparent VFR corridor ahead likely deteriorated rapidly due to rising terrain and mountain obscuration. Given the airplane’s near-level, high-speed impact attitude, the pilot was likely unable to perceive and avoid the terrain in sufficient time to prevent the collision.

Verbatim NTSB analysis and probable cause from the NTSB dataset