ERA19LA093 · Piper PA32RT 300

The pilot departed under visual flight rules before obtaining an instrument flight rules (IFR) clearance from air traffic control into an area of moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over the open ocean. A review of radar and voice communication data revealed the pilot struggled to maintain assigned headings throughout the duration of the flight. When queried by air traffic control, the pilot stated that the wind was "squirrely," and later stated that the heading deviations were the result of autopilot and instrument issues; however, the pilot declared that he was "fine" and declined offers of assistance from air traffic control. The directional changes became increasingly divergent until the radar track depicted a rapid, tightening, descending right turn, during which radar contact was lost. The wreckage was not located after the accident despite a search undertaken by air and sea assets, thus the wreckage could not be examined.

The precipitation and restricted visibility conditions present in the area at the time of the accident were conducive to the development of spatial disorientation. The airplane's erratic flight track, which included directional changes inconsistent with progress toward the destination, and the rapidly descending right turn depicted on radar are consistent with the known effects of spatial disorientation. It is likely that the pilot's decision to initiate the flight into an area of restricted visibility and thunderstorms resulted in his loss of airplane control due to spatial disorientation.

Verbatim NTSB analysis and probable cause from the NTSB dataset